Author: Leshan L Naisho
In early 2024, the coastal landscape of Berbera, Somaliland, became the focal point of a transformative regional development.
Ethiopia’s landmark agreement to develop a Red Sea port here marks a pivotal moment in East African maritime politics.
This strategic initiative promises to reshape not only regional trade patterns but also the complex web of political relationships across the Horn of Africa.
The weight of history and economic necessity
Ethiopia’s maritime aspirations stem from a pressing historical reality. Since losing its coastal access following Ethiopia’s independence in 1993, Africa’s second-largest nation has grappled with the constraints of being landlocked.
The economic impact has been substantial: the World Bank’s 2023 Horn of Africa Regional Economic Memorandum reveals that Ethiopia’s landlocked status drains approximately 1.5% of its GDP annually in logistics costs alone.
This burden is amplified by the country’s heavy reliance on a single maritime outlet—the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reports that Djibouti’s ports handle over 95% of Ethiopia’s international trade, processing 1.2 million TEUs in 2023.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, recognising these challenges, frames the Berbera port agreement as a strategic necessity: “This agreement is about economic cooperation and regional integration.
Ethiopia’s access to the sea is crucial for our development.” His statement underscores a broader vision for regional economic integration and development.
Sovereignty, security, and regional tensions
However, the agreement has ignited significant regional tensions.
Somalia’s immediate and forceful response highlights the complex political dynamics at play.
On January 2, 2024, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud declared, “This is a clear violation of Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. We will not stand for the secession of any part of our territory.”
This sharp rebuke underscores the delicate balance between economic development and territorial sovereignty in the region.
The International Crisis Group’s January 2024 briefing amplifies these concerns, warning that the port agreement could destabilise an already fragile region.
This assessment gains particular significance when considered alongside existing regional challenges, including persistent security threats from non-state actors and ongoing disputes over resource sharing.
A Complex Geopolitical Chessboard
The agreement’s implications extend far beyond bilateral relations between Ethiopia and Somaliland.
Egypt’s strategic interest in the development, particularly in light of ongoing disputes over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), adds another layer of complexity.
The Chatham House Africa Programme’s 2024 report emphasises this point, noting that the port deal represents a significant shift in regional power dynamics with far-reaching implications for stability across the Horn of Africa.
International observers increasingly recognise that the confluence of maritime access, water rights, and regional influence creates a particularly volatile political environment.
This volatility is further complicated by the region’s strategic importance to global maritime trade and security interests.
Building Bridges Across Troubled Waters
The path forward requires careful navigation of competing interests.
As former U.S. Ambassador to Ethiopia David Shinn astutely observes, “The question isn’t whether Ethiopia should have maritime access, but how this can be achieved in a way that strengthens rather than undermines regional stability.”
This perspective highlights the need for balanced development that considers both economic imperatives and regional stability.
The role of international institutions and regional bodies becomes crucial in this context.
The African Union’s Peace and Security Council emphasises the need for cooperative security arrangements that can support economic development while addressing regional security challenges.
This multilateral approach could provide a framework for managing competing interests and fostering collaborative development.
Looking to the Future
The Ethiopia-Somaliland port agreement stands as a testament to both the challenges and opportunities facing the Horn of Africa.
Its success hinges on the delicate balance between national interests and regional stability, economic development and political sensitivity, sovereign rights, and shared prosperity.
As the region moves forward, the international community’s role in supporting dialogue and cooperation becomes increasingly vital.
The port development project could serve as either a catalyst for regional integration or a source of heightened tensions.
The outcome will largely depend on stakeholders’ ability to prioritise long-term regional stability over immediate national gains.
For the Horn of Africa, the path to stability and prosperity lies not in isolation but in meaningful cooperation—both within the region and with the broader international community.
The Berbera port agreement, while controversial, offers an opportunity to demonstrate how complex regional challenges can be transformed into platforms for collaborative growth and development.
>>>>> Leshan Loonena Naisho is an accomplished political economist with a master’s in International Political Economy. His academic focus centres on political economy, development policy, and international relations, particularly the governance of economic development and the influence of foreign policy on global markets.
