Jibran Qureishi, Head, Africa Regions Economics Research, Standard Bank
Ghana faces mounting external headwinds from elevated oil prices and surging shipping costs triggered by Middle East geopolitical tensions. Standard Bank has sharply revised downward its current account surplus projection for 2026, slashing the forecast by approximately $1 billion, primarily driven by soaring petroleum import costs.
The revisions underscore the vulnerability of Africa’s largest gold producer to global energy market shocks. As a net oil importer, Ghana faces significant headwinds from elevated energy prices.
At an oil price of $65 per barrel, petroleum imports account for approximately 29% of total goods imports, a proportion that rises sharply at higher price levels like $90-95 per barrel.
Standard Bank analyst Jibran Qureishi spoke about the impact of the crisis.
He said, “We still import a lot more oil than we export. This has prompted us to re-look at our current account surplus position. We had initially thought that Ghana could print a surplus of about $5 billion for 2026, but we do now believe that this could reduce by about a billion dollars.”
Despite this downward revision, Ghana maintains a projected current account surplus, a critical indicator of external stability. Even accounting for the anticipated deterioration from higher oil prices, the economy is expected to avoid sliding into deficit.
One mitigating factor is Ghana’s limited direct exposure to Middle East supply disruptions compared to other African economies.
Only 6% of the country’s fertilizer imports originate from the UAE, with the majority of supplies sourced from Russia and Italy.
Similarly, cocoa exports, Ghana’s traditional revenue mainstay alongside gold, face minimal direct exposure to the region.
This relative insulation from regional supply chains provides some buffer against worst-case scenarios, though crude oil remains a significant vulnerability that cannot be easily diversified.
Regarding the forex exchange market, the Ghanaian market has come under significant pressure, with Standard Bank estimating a dollar backlog of approximately $1 billion. The cedi has weakened to trade around GHS 11. 65 – 11. 70 per dollar in the spot market, reflecting the tight supply of hard currency.
The research team expects the official rate to approach the GHS 12.00 handle before recovering as new liquidity-provision mechanisms take effect. This anticipated depreciation underscores the importance of structural reforms aimed at stabilizing the forex market.
The Bank of Ghana is implementing a significant shift in how it manages foreign exchange, transitioning from its current auction system to a new 15-day funded forward mechanism managed by the gold board. This mechanism operates at the central bank’s reference rate with a flat fee of 0.05% in cedi.
The reform aims to channel the substantial liquidity from artisanal miners directly into the broader market, reducing aggressive bidding pressure at auctions and providing more equitable access to foreign exchange for businesses across the economy.
“The existing FX auction system emboldens aggressive bidding at these auctions, and number two, they don’t think that everybody gets FX equities. Through this transition, there’s likely going to be less volatility, less aggressive bidding, and there will be more liquidity to the broader market players,” Mr. Qureishi explained of the authorities’ reasoning.
The Bank of Ghana surprised markets with a 150 basis point rate cut in the early weeks of the Middle East crisis, lowering the monetary policy rate to 14%. However, Standard Bank expects the central bank to pause further cuts amid rising inflation pressures from elevated fuel and food prices.
“Inflation will get towards the high single digits, low double digits before the end of the year. It is warranted for the Bank of Ghana’s Monetary Policy Committee to now pause. We are expecting a neutral policy stance for the remainder of the year, with risks for a hawkish bias towards year-end,” Mr. Qureishi forecasts.
He also noted that a mounting challenge looms with external debt servicing. External debt amortizations rose sharply from $960 million in 2025 to a projected $2.3 billion in 2026, escalating further to $3.2 billion in 2027.
These substantial payments pose a significant drain on foreign exchange reserves and constrain fiscal flexibility.
Despite elevated foreign exchange reserves at approximately $13.9 billion as of April 2026, the mounting amortization schedule underscores the importance of macroeconomic discipline.
Standard Bank expects Ghana may eventually seek commercial financing through syndicated loans or a Eurobond issuance once the IMF programme formally concludes.
The critical test lies ahead. Mr. Qureishi stressed that “The authorities have to now prove to the investment community, and this will be the litmus test between now and the election year of 2028, that they are completely out of the ICU and completely at home. Ghana has a fiscal credibility deficit, and it takes years to restore that.”
